Gillian Bradford: Right now, we might just be witnessing a really fundamental change in Australia's financial markets.
(media clips)
“Everything about this captures the imagination.”
“And if you're scratching your head thinking, what's she talking about, well, don't worry if this one's not on the tip of your tongue because outside of financial circles, it kind of has been flying under the radar.”
Gillian Bradford: Hi, I'm Gillian Bradford, and welcome back to Inside ASIC.
And today, we're going to be talking about the rise of private markets.
And by this I mean the global trend away from listing on stock markets, with a lot more firms choosing to raise equity privately.
(media clips)
“AirTrunk, the Aussie data centre business founded by Robin Cooder in 2015, has reportedly been sold to US private capital giant Blackstone.”
“It's the biggest deal of the year.”
“The price, get this, was $24 billion.”
“So how's this AirTrunk deal?”
“Well, this is private capital at work, isn't it?”
Gillian Bradford: Yep, financial journos went pretty crazy for this AirTrunk deal last year, and it's fair to say investors, banks, regulators and the markets more broadly are trying to wrap their heads around if this is a taste of something bigger.
So, in today's episode of Inside ASIC, we're all about understanding private versus public markets, why it matters and what's the role of our corporate regulator when these deals are being done behind closed doors.
Well, to kick off this conversation, I'm joined now by Carole Comerton-Ford.
Carole is Professor of Finance at Melbourne University, and she was also commissioned by ASIC to write a report on the state of our public equity market.
Carole, thanks for talking to us.
Carole Comerton-Ford: thanks for having me.
Gillian Bradford: Well, it feels like the billion-dollar question after that air trunk deal. Once upon a time to raise that sort of capital in Australia, we'd be talking about listing on the Stock Exchange.
But now should we expect that that sort of private deal is just part of the landscape?
Carole Comerton-Ford: I think so.
I think there's evolution in both the private markets and the public markets, and both are critically important to the economy.
And as more private capitals become available, I think it's not unsurprising to see large deals going to the private markets.
But I don't think we'll see many of that magnitude in the foreseeable future, but not impossible.
Gillian Bradford: So why have private markets become more attractive to some companies in today's economy?
Carole Comerton-Ford: So, private markets have become more attractive for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, the sort of the rise of private capital being more readily available.
So, there is an abundance of private capital, and obviously if you've got a trade-off between taking private capital where you've got very little in the way of disclosure burden and governance obligations, offset that against the public markets where there are higher burdens and obligations.
If you have that choice, the private market is obviously attractive.
Gillian Bradford: So, have Australia’s public markets become over regulated?
What are you hearing from company directors about this?
Carole Comerton-Ford: Yeah, so I think that's a bit of a conundrum.
When I talk to company directors or people in the investment markets, they say the ASX is overburdened with governance and disclosure obligations.
But none of that has changed in the last two years.
There have been no major increases in regulation in the Australian market over that period, and yet we've seen this big decline in in number of listings.
2021 was actually the second highest year for IPOs in the Australian market ever.
So, somehow from 2021 through to 2024, there's a perception change of how regulated the market is, but no real change in regulation.
So, I think there's two possible explanations for why that has changed.
I think one is just the abundance of private capital.
So again, people now have the ability to go to private markets rather than public.
And I think another possible explanation is changes in community expectations around how directors should behave, directors of public companies.
And I think the directors feel that burden.
Gillian Bradford: Okay, so there’s public licence to operate?
Carole Comerton-Ford: Exactly. Exactly.
Gillian Bradford: Australia is a pretty small player in global equity markets, but what are some of the lessons we might be able to take from overseas markets?
Carole Comerton-Ford: So I think in the US people have also argued that the decline is due to over regulation, but the academic literature has studied that extensively and suggests that it's not really the regulation that has driven that change.
It's the changing nature of companies and the rise of private capital.
So, a good example to think about is a company like Instagram, which was acquired by Facebook back in 2012 for a billion dollar valuation.
So, we'd normally think a company like that should be going public, but it didn't.
They were acquired Facebook, and there's probably 2 main reasons for that.
One, they didn't need lots of capitals.
They didn't need to go to the public markets to raise capital.
And two, being acquired by Facebook gave them a very large customer base to tap into very quickly.
So, they can grow much more quickly through being acquired by a large company rather than having to grow organically on their own.
So I think we need to be mindful of that and not jump to regulatory change, but to understand the drivers and the landscape better before making change.
I think most overseas market regulators have got better visibility of the private markets than ASIC has.
So, I think there is a need for the starting point being having better visibility and better transparency around fund performance, fund holdings, fees and so on.
Gillian Bradford: And Carole, there's certainly a perception that private markets will get you a bigger return. Does that actually stack up?
Carole Comerton-Ford: So, I think one of the reasons why investors are pouring money into private markets is because of the catch cry that you hear that private assets outperform public assets.
But I think the evidence on that is far from clear.
If you look at the academic literature globally, that was true a decade or two decades ago.
I don't think it's necessarily true anymore.
And in fact, in most recent times, public markets have been outperforming private.
So, I think investors really need to have better quality information to assess performance and to assess risk in order to evaluate whether this claim that private markets outperform public markets is true.
Gillian Bradford: Professor Carole Comerton-Ford, thank you so much for talking to us.
Carole Comerton-Ford: Thank you.
Gillian Bradford: And next up, a couple of ASIC’s experts are going to talk to us about how the Commission's responding to this shift from public to private.
And I'm joined now by Senior Executive leader, Market Conduct, Andrew Templer, and senior Executive Leader, Strategic Projects, Jane Eccleston.
Welcome to you both.
Jane Eccleston: Glad to be here.
Andrew Templer: Thanks for having us.
Gillian Bradford: Jane, ASIC's recently released this discussion paper on the dynamic between public and private markets. So, why is it such a big one for ASIC?
Jane Eccleston: So, there's really two sides to this.
First, is there enough money to fund business growth to meet Australia's future economic needs and challenges?
I'm thinking about things like the energy transition, for instance.
It's going to take a lot of capital investment.
And second, are there investment opportunities to grow wealth?
So, I'm not just talking about someone who's got a bit of spare cash and wants to put it into the stock market, but I'm thinking about Australia's 4.1 trillion superannuation savings.
So, as a nation we have the 5th largest pot of retirement savings in the world.
That's a lot of money that needs investment.
Gillian Bradford: OK, so this is pretty fundamental to the whole economy.
Jane Eccleston: Absolutely.
Gillian Bradford: Andrew, spell it out for us exactly what we're talking about when we say the rise of private markets.
Andrew Templer: So, over the past decade, global private capital assets under management have tripled to 14.6 trillion U.S. dollars.
We're increasingly seeing private capital funds and superannuation behind some of the largest deals in Australian markets and this included Blackstone's acquisition of the unlisted Australian private company Air Trunk for $24 billion and the IFM consortium of super funds acquisition of the ASX listed Sydney airports for 23.6 billion Australian dollars.
Gillian Bradford: So, it's worth spelling out there that while AirTrunk was this massive $24 billion deal, it's the trend ASIC's looking at.
Andrew Templer: Yeah, so we're seeing some of these large deals in the private markets, whereas I think traditionally we would have seen more of these transactions accessing the public equity market to seek capital.
And so, we think with growing pools of capital in the private space, this is something that we would expect to see continue.
Gillian Bradford: And superannuation, Jane, is absolutely front of mind for ASIC on so many different levels and it's a pretty important factor why Australians need to care about this public private dynamic because one way or another, if we don't already, Australians are going to find they've got money moving between both markets.
Jane Eccleston: In terms of household wealth, superannuation is second only to the household in terms of everyday mums and dads, where their wealth actually is, a lot of it's in superannuation. So, increasingly seeing superannuation funds putting money either into private markets or alternatively investing overseas.
If you think about how superannuation funds are likely to invest in those private markets, there's some really good reasons why they would be doing that.
But with any of these investments, there's also risks as well.
It's a lot harder to value an asset if it's not traded publicly.
There's not a ready market, and instead it really comes down to whether there's a lot of discipline and governance about the way in which those assets are values.
And that is important because it flows through to people's superannuation balances.
Gillian Bradford: Okay, Andrew, I want to pick up on that with you.
So on this issue around transparency, so it's going to be important for ASIC as more and more people dive into the private markets either directly or indirectly through super that you understand what's going on.
Andrew Templer: Yeah. Well, private markets by their nature are opaque.
And so we look at this transparency issue from two different directions.
Firstly, transparency for investors, both retail and wholesale investors.
And have they got access to the information they need to make confident and informed investment decisions?
And secondly, for regulators, do they have access to the data they need to supervise activity in private markets and to monitor the impact of changes in markets?
And so data is essential to ASIC's work, and we've said in the our discussion paper that we need better recurrent data to more accurately assess risks in private markets.
Gillian Bradford: I know it's early days yet, but how have the private markets reacted so far for ASIC's call for more information on these deals?
Jane Eccleston: Look, you might think that they'd be against this but actually we've had a lot of positive feedback that recognising that as markets change, more is going to be needed in terms of transparency for regulators.
So, this is no means a ASIC against the industry.
We're really keen to talk to industry about what the way forward might be and what's something that would benefit Australia as a whole, but also might have some commercial benefits as well for the industry as well in terms of their transparency.
Gillian Bradford: Jane, I've heard Joe Longo talk about this, right as we stand here today, private markets aren't systematically important to the economy.
But as investors become more exposed, the risks more broadly increase.
And you've actually raised this question in the discussion paper. Could the next financial crisis come out of the private markets?
Jane Eccleston: So, I think that's a a question that we need to ask ourselves as a responsible regulator.
It doesn't mean that we think that private markets growing is necessarily a bad thing at all, but it does mean that we need to pause and just really reflect on what might be the consequences if we're not paying attention.
Gillian Bradford: Now, Andrew, just the fact that ASIC is talking about this issue, a lot of people might think they're about to turn the screws on private markets.
Is that the case?
Andrew Templer: Well, we have said in the discussion paper that as these markets grow, it's appropriate that we put more focus on supervising private market investments, including private capital funds.
And we're also interested in ideas to simplify markets regulation.
So, I think the initial response from industry has been expecting that we will look to tighten the screws, as you say, or increase regulation in this space.
But I'd also point to our Chair's remarks the end of last year and this year about our regulatory simplification programme.
And that's certainly a focus in this work too, whether we can both look at any need to intervene and areas where we can simplify law to improve the operation of our markets.
Gillian Bradford: Jane, are you imagining this is still going to be a big issue on ASIC's plate in five years time?
Jane Eccleston: In five years time, if we look at what has happened in other jurisdictions who are arguably ahead of us, there has been an incredible rise in terms of private markets, often at the expense of their public markets.
That has some benefits, but also some disadvantages, and one of them that I'd like to really highlight is that the public markets really serve a public good function.
They provide excellent means of getting transparency about valuations and all sorts of things, over and above just being a way in which companies can raise capital and investors can invest in companies.
Gillian Bradford: Because I can go to a document online, I can do the research on that company as a private investor, mum and dad investor, and I can see that information and make a decision.
And Australia traditionally has been a place where number of the proportion of Australians who directly hold investments in the ASX is very high compared to other places around the world.
So, we don't want to see the demise of our public markets.
But over the next five years, we will need to think about what is the regulatory approach we take given the rise of private markets and focus more of our attention in that sphere.
Gillian Bradford: Andrew and Jane, thank you both for joining us.
Terrific conversation, thank you.
Andrew Templer: Thank you.
Jane Eccleston: Thank you.
Gillian Bradford: Well, next up on Inside ASIC:
“Greenwashing matters, and it matters a lot because fundamentally it's a deception.
It's a deception that an institution or a company performs on another institution or a consumer by advertising a product that's supposedly climate or environmentally friendly when it's not in fact climate or environmentally friendly.
And so, if we think deception is wrong, then we ought to think greenwashing is wrong.”
Gillian Bradford: I'm Gillian Bradford, thanks for listening to Inside ASIC.
We'll pop a link to this ASIC discussion paper on public and private markets in our episode notes.
And don't forget, you can catch up with the latest episodes and all of last season wherever you get your podcasts.
Bye for now.